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November 2020 - Ada & Canyon County Market Update



As more and more people from out of state arrive to the Boise area and are struck by the limited housing inventory situation, many are becoming desperate to get into a home and fast. Rapid growth and dramatic decrease of inventory of homes for sale in both Ada and Canyon Counties continue to drive up prices. For how long? No one can say for sure, but the data is showing that we can anticipate the trend in the local housing market to continue into 2021.


Before we talk about home prices let's dive into inventory. A balanced market, a market not in favor of the buyer or the seller, typically means six months of homes for sale. Over six months of homes for sale, means more homes for buyers to choose from, less competition and is considered a buyers market. Anything less than six months is a seller's market. Most of the US housing markets have not been balanced for many years, but it starts getting very HOT when we're seeing inventory dip to less than a month supply, and that's exactly where we are in both Ada and Canyon Counties.


Take a look at the market trends for Ada County''s existing homes taken from last month comparing with the past 12 months to understand just how low the inventory is.

(courtesy of KW Realty Boise Market Dynamics)

This chart shows a 78% decrease in existing homes for sale from one year ago and 37% decrease from one month ago. Another way to put this in perspective is that Ada County would need roughly 5000 homes for sale for it to be considered a balanced market. Yikes! We're no where near that mark and the number of homes going up for sale keep dwindling.


COVID is a big deterrent to home owner's who were considering selling their home, but also many who have been considering a change in home are feeling priced out of the market. "I'd like to sell, but where will I go in this market?", is something I hear almost every day when talking to home owners.


The low inventory is causing a lot of frustration for home buyers. With so few homes to choose from and so many buyers on the market multiple offers, bidding wars, and important contingencies being waived have become the norm. Last month buyers paid an average of over 1.3% over the asking price of homes in Boise alone.


Home buyers need to be prepared to bring their best offer to the table in this market and realize that with multiple offers often be presented they need to make their offer stand out. In a recent tutorial I explained a few ways for buyers to make their offer shine. It's imperative that buyers hire a real estate agent that understands the challenging market and knows the areas you want to move to. However, it's also important for buyers to be realistic that it may take a few attempts before getting an offer accepted in this market.


Enough about inventory. Let's move on to pricing because if you are considering selling your home there hasn't been a better time.

  • In Q3 the Ada county median existing home price of $389,900 was up 11.5% from the previous quarter which is a $40,000 jump in only three months!

  • The decline in new construction homes for sale trend continues. In October in Ada County there were 320 homes for sale compared to October 2019. In Canyon County there were only 76 homes for sale compared to 475 the year before.

  • In the City of Boise the median list price per square foot was $257 in October, up 30% from the year before.

  • Ada County in October had 1330 existing and new homes that sold with the median price remaining at $400K. Homes sold in record time, staying on the market only 4 days!

  • In October 2020 Canyon County saw 576 existing and new homes sell with a median price of $314K and homes were on the market for only 4 days!

  • Mortgage interest rates continue at record low rates ranging from 2.5% to 2.9%.

The charts below demonstrate the increase in average price for existing homes in both Ada and Canyon County. Please note: The above-mentioned market statistics demonstrate median sales price and include new construction.


Ada County Average Home Price Year Over Year as of October 2020

(courtesy of KW Realty Boise Market Dynamics)



Canyon County Average Home Price Year Over Year as October 2020

(courtesy of KW Realty Boise Market Dynamics)


Ada County New Construction Market Trends in October 2020

(Courtesy of KW Realty Boise Market Dynamics)


Canyon County Existing Home Market Trends in October 2020

(Courtesy of KW Realty Boise Market Trends)

Real Estate Market Predictions Q4 2020

As predicted in last month's report, the colder weather and holiday season are part of the reason we are seeing a decrease in homes for sale. Now with a surge in COVID-19 cases in Idaho and predictions of the surge remaining through winter we can expect even less homes will go up for sale throughout the end of the year. The low supply and increase in demand will continue to raise prices throughout the Treasure Valley. Now is the time for those considering purchasing a home to get their affairs in order, having their financing in place, making a backup plan for temporary housing, should it take longer than expected to purchase a home, and have a clear idea of exactly what home they are looking for before starting to shop. Home owners looking to sell should prepare that their home could sell quickly once on the market. Packing now before going on the market can save sellers a lot of time and stress once their home goes pending.


If you would like to know more specific details about the current real estate market in Ada or Canyon Counties please contact jennlouis@welcometoboiseandbeyond.com for more details.


Jennifer Louis is the owner and operator of Welcome to Boise and Beyond, a full-service real estate company dedicated to those relocating to the area and locals looking to sell their home, and maximize value. Jennifer writes and produces with her team weekly updates on the real estate industry in Boise and the surrounding Treasure Valley. Her blog contains insights into some of Boise's best local businesses, places to visit and neighborhoods to discover. If you'd like to schedule a free consultation please call: (208) 509-9122 or via email.

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(208) 509-9122 
jennlouis@welcometoboiseandbeyond.com
1099 S Wells Street, Meridian, IDaho 83642